New Papers
Journal Articles
Books & Monographs
Book Chapters
Non-Technical Articles
Current Research

Research

New Papers

"The Coming Wave: Where Do Emerging Market Investors Put Their Money?" (with G. Andrew Karolyi and David T. Ng) NBER Working Paper No. 21661, October 2015.

Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets” (with Boyang Zhang), NBER Working Paper No. 21471, August 2015.

Core vs. Headline Inflation Targeting in Models with Incomplete Markets” (with Rahul Anand). Technical Appendices (1.4MB pdf). Revised September 2012 (Revision of NBER Working Paper No. 16290).

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Journal Articles

What Measure of Inflation Should a Developing Country Central Bank Target?” (with Boyang Zhang and Rahul Anand), Journal of Monetary Economics, September 2015.

Distributional Effects of Macroeconomic Policy Choices in Emerging Market Economies,” IMF Economic Review, August 2014.

Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China,” (with Marcos Chamon and Kai Liu) Journal of Development Economics, November 2013.

"Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?" (with M. Ayhan Kose and Christopher Otrok) International Economic Review, May 2012.

Rebalancing Growth in Asia" International Finance, Spring 2011.

Thresholds in the Process of International Financial Integration,” (with M. Ayhan Kose and Ashley Taylor) Journal of International Money and Finance, January 2011. Supplementary material.

Why are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising" (with Marcos Chamon) American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2010.

"Some New Perspectives on India's Approach to Capital Account Liberalization" Brookings India Policy Forum, Volume 5 (2008/09), July 2009.

Does Financial Globalization Promote Risk Sharing?” (with M. Ayhan Kose and Marco Terrones) Journal of Development Economics, July 2009.

Does Openness to International Financial Flows Raise Productivity Growth?" (with M. Ayhan Kose and Marco Terrones) Journal of International Money and Finance, June 2009

Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal” (with M. Ayhan Kose, Kenneth Rogoff and Shang-Jin wei) IMF Staff Papers, April 2009.

Is the Chinese Growth Miracle Built to Last?China Economic Review, March 2009.

A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization” (with Raghuram Rajan) Journal of Economic Perspectives, Summer 2008

Foreign Capital and Economic Growth,” (with Raghuram Rajan and Arvind Subramanian) Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, September 2007

A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China” (with Marvin Goodfriend) CESifo Economic Studies, March 2007

Changes in the Earnings Structure during the Polish Transition,” (with Michael Keane) Journal of Development Economics, June 2006.

How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility?” (with M. Ayhan Kose and Marco Terrones) Journal of International Economics, June 2006.

Modernizing China’s Growth Paradigm” (with Raghuram Rajan) American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings, May 2006.

The Unbearable Stability of the German Wage Structure: Evidence and Interpretation,IMF Staff Papers, September 2004.

How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?” (with Ayhan Kose and Marco Terrones) American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings, May 2003.

Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration,” (with Menzie Chinn) Journal of International Economics, January 2003.

Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach,” (with Robin Lumsdaine) The Economic Journal, January 2003.

Wage Inequality in the United Kingdom, 1975-99,IMF Staff Papers, October 2002.

Inequality, Transfers and Growth: New Evidence from the Economic Transition in Poland,” (with Michael Keane) Review of Economics and Statistics, May 2002.

Possible Effects of European Monetary Union on Switzerland: A Case Study of Policy Dilemmas Caused by Low Inflation and the Nominal Interest Rate Floor,” (with Douglas Laxton) Journal of Policy Modeling, August 2001.

Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts,” (with Pierre-Richard Agénor and John McDermott) World Bank Economic Review, May 2000.

International Trade and the Business Cycle,The Economic Journal, October 1999.

International Evidence on the Determinants of Trade Dynamics,” (with Jeffery Gable) IMF Staff Papers, September 1998.

Labor Market Adjustment in Canada and the United States,” (with Alun Thomas) Canadian Public Policy, Winter 1998.

Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan,” (with Bankim Chadha) IMF Staff Papers, September 1997.

Sectoral Shifts and Structural Change in the Japanese Economy: Evidence and Interpretation, Japan and the World Economy, August 1997.

Currency Unions, Economic Fluctuations, and Adjustment: Some New Empirical Evidence,” (with Tamim Bayoumi) IMF Staff Papers, March 1997.

Skill Heterogeneity and the Business Cycle,Canadian Journal of Economics, November 1996.

Employment and Wage Effects of Oil Price Changes: A Sectoral Analysis,” (with Michael Keane) Review of Economics and Statistics, August 1996.

Are Prices Countercyclical? Evidence from the G-7,” (with Bankim Chadha) Journal of Monetary Economics, October 1994.

Skill Levels and the Cyclical Variability of Employment, Hours, and Wages,” (with Michael Keane) IMF Staff Papers, December 1993.

Interpreting the Cyclical Behavior of Prices,” (with Bankim Chadha) IMF Staff Papers, June 1993.

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Books & Monographs

"Gaining Currency: The Rise of the Renminbi," Oxford University Press, October 2016

The Dollar Trap: How the U.S. Dollar Tightened Its Grip on Global Finance” Princeton University Press, February 2014

Editor of "New Paradigms for Financial Regulation: Emerging Market Perspectives" (co-editor: Masahiro Kawai), Brookings Institution Press, 2012.

Editor of "Asian Perspectives on Financial Sector Reforms and Regulation" (co-editor: Masahiro Kawai), Brookings Institution Press, 2011

Editor of “Financial Sector Regulation and Reforms in Emerging Markets” (co-editor: Masahiro Kawai), Brookings Institution Press, 2011.

Emerging Markets: Resilience and Growth Amid Global Turmoil” (with M. Ayhan Kose), Brookings Institution Press, November 2010

Editor of “Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets” (co-editors: Gill Hammond and Ravi Kanbur), Edward Elgar Press, 2009.

Editor of “China and India: Learning from Each Other” (co-editors: Jahangir Aziz and Steven Dunaway), 2006. (full document 2.2mb pdf. For individual chapters, click here.)

Editor of “China’s Growth and Integration with the World Economy: Prospects and Challenges, IMF Occasional Paper No. 232, 2004. (420k pdf)

Editor of “Hong Kong SAR: The Challenges of Integration with the Mainland,IMF Occasional Paper No. 226, 2004. (396k pdf)

Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence,” (with Kenneth Rogoff, Shang-Jin Wei and M. Ayhan Kose), IMF Occasional Paper No. 220, 2003. (548k pdf)

“Perspectives on Regional Unemployment in Europe,” (with Paolo Mauro and Antonio Spilimbergo) IMF Occasional Paper No. 177, 1999.

“MULTIMOD Mark III: The Core Dynamic and Steady State Models,” (with Douglas Laxton, Peter Isard, Hamid Faruqee, Bart Turtelboom) IMF Occasional Paper No. 164, 1998.

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Book Chapters

The Renminbi’s Ascendance in Global Finance,” in Proceedings of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s Asia Economic Policy Conference, 2015.

"Global Implications of the Renminbi's Ascendance," in Renminbi Internationalization: Achievements, Prospects, and Challenges, edited by Barry Eichengreen and Masahiro Kawai, Brookings Institution Press, 2015. (143k pdf)

Managing Capital Flow Volatility,” in Long-Term Finance: Can Emerging Markets Help? Proceedings of a BIS-Bank of Russia High-Level Seminar, 2014.

"Monetary Policy in China," (with Boyang Zhang) in The Oxford Companion to the Economics of China, edited by Shenggen Fan, Ravi Kanbur, Shang-Jin Wei, and Xiaobo Zhang, Oxford University Press, 2014. (201k pdf)

"The Renminbi's Prospects as a Global Reserve Currency," (with Lei Ye) in China's Road to Greater Financial Stability: Some Policy Perspectives, edited by Udaibir Das, Jonathan Fiechter, and Tao Sun, IMF Press, 2013.

"Role Reversal in Global Finance," Proceedings of the 2011 Jackson Hole Symposium (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City), 2012. (1.6MB pdf)

Emerging Markets in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis,” in The World Economy After the Global Crisis, edited by Barry Eichengreen (World Scientific Press), 2012. (446k pdf)

Harnessing Globalization in South Asia,” (with Weishi Grace Gu) in Reshaping Tomorrow: Is South Asia Ready for the Big Leap? edited by Ejaz Ghani (Oxford University Press), 2011. (545k pdf)

Financial Sector Regulation and Reforms in Emerging Markets: An Overview,” in Financial Sector Regulation and Reforms in Emerging Markets, edited by Masahiro Kawai and Eswar Prasad (Brookings Institution Press), 2011. (119k pdf)

Financial Globalization and Macroeconomic Policies,” (with Ayhan Kose, Kenneth Rogoff and Shang-Jin Wei) in Handbook of Development Economics, edited by Dani Rodrik and Mark Rosenzweig (North-Holland Press), 2010. (2MB pdf)

China’s Growth Model: Choices and Consequences,” in Emerging Giants: China and India in the World Economy, edited by Barry Eichengreen, Poonam Gupta and Rajiv Kumar (Oxford University Press), December 2009. (456k pdf)

Monetary Policy Challenges for Emerging Market Economies,” (with Gill Hammond and Ravi Kanbur) in New Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets: Coping with the Challenges of Financial Globalization, edited by Gill Hammond, Ravi Kanbur and Eswar Prasad (Edward Elgar), August 2009. (1.1MB pdf)

Monetary Policy Independence, the Currency Regime, and the Capital Account in China,” in Debating China’s Exchange Rate Policy, edited by Morris Goldstein and Nicholas Lardy, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2008. (452k pdf)

China’s Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations,” (with Shang-Jin Wei) in Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, edited by Sebastian Edwards (University of Chicago Press for NBER), 2007. (520k pdf)

Exchange Rate Flexibility in China: Why It Really Matters,” in China at the Crossroads: FX and Capital Markets Policy for the Next Decade, edited by Charles Calomiris, 2007 (Columbia University Press). (148k pdf)

“Monetary Policy Implementation in China,” (with Marvin Goodfriend) in Monetary Policy Strategies for Asia: Proceedings of a BIS-HKIMR Conference, edited by Hans Genberg and Robert McCauley, 2007.

Patterns of International Capital Flows and their Implications for Economic Development,” (with Raghuram Rajan and Arvind Subramanian in Proceedings of the 2006 Jackson Hole Symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. (496k pdf)

Putting the Cart Before the Horse? Capital Account Liberalization and Exchange Rate Flexibility in China,” (with Thomas Rumbaugh and Qing Wang) IMF Policy Discussion Paper PDP /05/1, January 2005. (920k pdf)

Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization,” (with M. Ayhan Kose and Marco Terrones) forthcoming in IMF Staff Papers: Selected Proceedings of the MussaFest Conference, edited by Robert Flood, 2005. (176k pdf)

“Volatility and Comovement in an Integrated World Economy: An Empirical Exploration,” (joint with M. Ayhan Kose and Marco Terrones), in Proceedings of the 2003 Kiel Week Conference: Macroeconomic Policies in the World Economy, edited by Horst Siebert (Springer-Verlag), 2004.

“What Determines the Reservation Wages of Unemployed Workers? New Evidence from German Micro Data,” in Institutions and Wage Formation in the New Europe, edited by Gabriel Fagan, Francesco Mongelli and Julian Morgan (Edward Elgar), 2004.

Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility” (joint with M. Ayhan Kose and Marco Terrones) IMF Staff Papers: Proceedings of the Third Annual Research Conference of the IMF, 2003. (120k pdf)

“Redistribution and Growth in the Polish Transition: An Analysis from Political Economy and New Growth Theory Perspectives,” (with Michael Keane), in Growth and Inequality: Issues and Policy Implications, edited by Theo Eicher and   Stephen Turnovsky (MIT Press), 2003.

Consumption and Income Inequality During Early Transition: Poland, 1985-92” (with Michael Keane) IMF Staff Papers: Proceedings of the First Annual Research Conference of the IMF, November 2001. (156k pdf)

The Dynamics of Reservation Wages: Preliminary Evidence from the GSOEP,Proceedings of the 2000 GSOEP Conference, 2001 (Berlin, Germany: DIW). (72k pdf)

“International Spillovers of Macroeconomic Shocks: A Quantitative Exploration,” (with Douglas Laxton) in EMU, Financial Markets and the World Economy, edited by Thomas Moser and Bernd Schips, 2000 (Kluwer Academic Publishers).

A Disaggregated Analysis of Employment Growth Fluctuations in Canada,” (with Alun Thomas) Atlantic Economic Journal, September 1998. (704k pdf)

“Labor Market Aspects of Industrial Restructuring in Canada,” Canadian Business Economics, Fall 1993.

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Non-Technical Articles

A Middle Ground: The Renminbi is Rising But Will Not Rule,” Finance & Development, March 2017.

The Dragon Stretches Its Wings” Milken Institute Review, January 2017.

The Dollar Reigns Supreme—By Default,” Finance & Development, March 2014.

Managing Capital Flow Volatility,” BIS Papers, January 2014.

The Dollar Trap,” Harvard Business Review, December 2013.

"The Renminbi's Prospects as a Global Reserve Currency," (with Lei Ye) The Cato Journal, Fall 2013.

"The Coming Wave: Capital Outflows from Emerging Markets," (with G. Andrew Karolyi and David T. Ng) Finance & Development, June 2013.

"Saving in Developing Countries," NBER Reporter, 2013.

Will the Renminbi Rule?Finance & Development, March 2012.

Role Reversal,” Finance & Development, December 2011.

Emerging Markets Come of Age,” (with M. Ayhan Kose) Finance & Development, December 2010.

After the Fall: Central Banking in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis,” Finance & Development, June 2010.

The World Economy: Bottoming Out or a Respite before the Next Crunch,” The Cato Journal, Spring/Summer 2010.

Rebalancing Growth in Asia,” Finance & Development, December 2009.

Effects of the Financial Crisis on the U.S.-China Economic RelationshipThe Cato Journal, Spring/Summer 2009

Review of ‘China's Great Economic Transformation’,” edited by Brandt and Rawski, Journal of International Economics, June 2009.

"Next Generation Financial Reforms for India" (with Raghuram Rajan) Finance & Development, September 2008.

How Much Decoupling? How Much Converging?” (with M. Ayhan Kose and Christopher Otrok) Finance & Development, June 2008.

"What to Think When Capital Flows Uphill," Milken Institute Review, April 2008.

"China's Currency Crunch," (with Marvin Goodfriend) Foreign Policy, January/February 2008.

The Welfare Implications of Global Financial FlowsThe Cato Journal, Summer 2007.

Financial Globalization: Beyond the Blame Game” (with M. Ayhan Kose, Kenneth Rogoff and Shang-Jin Wei) Finance & Development, March 2007.

“The Paradox of Capital” (with Raghuram Rajan and Arvind Subramanian) Finance & Development, March 2007.

 “Controlled Capital Account Liberalization: A New Approach” (with Raghuram Rajan), IMF Policy Discussion Paper PDP /05/7, October 2005.

Next Steps for China: Why Financial Sector Reform is a Crucial Element of a Longer-Term Growth Strategy,Finance & Development, September 2005.

Taking the Plunge Without Getting Hurt: How Globalization Has Changed the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility,” (with M. Ayhan Kose and Marco Terrones) Finance & Development, December 2004.

Capital Account Liberalization,” (with M. Ayhan Kose) Finance & Development, September 2004.

“Growth and Stability in China: Prospects and Challenges,” Economic & Political Weekly (India), May 2004.

Beyond the Great Wall: China’s Integration into the Global Trading System,” (with Thomas Rumbaugh) Finance & Development, December 2003.

Thinking Big: How Can Small States Hold Their Own in an Increasingly Globalized Economy,” (with Ayhan Kose) Finance & Development, December 2002.

Inequality, Transfers and Growth in Transition” (with Michael Keane) Finance & Development, March 2001.

Current Research

“Macro-Financial Linkages in an Era of Globalization” (with M. Ayhan Kose and Christopher Otrok).

“What Determines Portfolio Investment Patterns of Emerging Market Investors?” (with Andrew Karolyi and David Ng).

“Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Choices in Emerging Markets” (with Boyang Zhang).